AI Productivity Gains Are 10%, Not 10x

The author reports a study of 400 companies conducted from November 2024 to February 2026. The study measured how AI affected productivity.

• AI use grew by 65 percent.

• Pull‑request throughput increased by only about ten percent (the exact rise was 9.97 percent).

These results disagree with marketing claims of two‑ to three‑fold improvements. They match other reports that show gains of eight to twelve percent.

Developers say that coding is only a part of the work. Planning, review, and handoffs did not change.

Leaders are encouraged to reset expectations and learn from teams that are seeing the upside.